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| All they ask him to do is play defense ... and not cleat himself. |
Doing stupid things is kind of my calling card. I hopped on the Snuggie bandwagon real early. I’ve spent too many hours to count thinking about ways to bring the 90s back (word?). Today, my exercise in futility focuses on the Royals, whose play is sometimes an exercise in futility itself, … ohhhh sick burn (but really I love these guys).
Even though it happened so long ago, I’m still consistently thinking about the Melky Cabrera trade and trying to determine what impact it has. I’m a big believer in the trade and think the Royals got excellent value for him. I also like the idea of Lorenzo Cain in center field, perhaps even more so than Cabrera, even with Cabrera’s bat taking off last year.
Of course, these thoughts were just a catalyst to thinking about the Royals defense as a whole and what it might look like next year. So, I did some research. Undoubtedly, I broke some big statistical analysis rules by guestimating and using small sample sizes at times. Luckily, I care nothing for the rules of mire mortals, with their brains, and fancy calculators, and rules that make perfect sense. Huh, who needs that stuff?
Instead, I did a numbers-for-dumbies-who-don’t-know-numbers version of statistical analysis to look at what the Royals defense looked like in 2011 and what it might look like in 2012.
Let’s start with the overall numbers, which were pretty good for the Royals in 2011:
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
19.3 -5.6 -12.7 5.4 6.4 3.3
*If you don’t know what these mean, keep reading. I explain them.
That’s the line of advanced defensive metrics for the Royals (some of them anyway). If you don’t know what these mean, here’s a quick and dirty breakdown of a very complicated system. Essentially the first four numbers represent runs saved by fielders in different categories—outfield throwing arm (ARM), double plays (DPR), fielding range (RngR), fielding errors (ErrR). UZR is the overall score of runs saved and UZR/150 is that number over a span of 150 games to create a level field of comparison. For simplicity, think of 0 as average, a fielder who does not cost their team nor save their team any runs.
Obviously, the Royals defense saved runs over the course of their season. Their 3.3 UZR/150 ranked eighth in MLB and sixth in the AL. It’s also clear that the monster year their outfield displayed with their throwing arms helped cover up a severe lack of range, though I’ll explain why that lack of range is a little misleading as well. However they did it, most would say the rankings for the Royals defensively was promising, especially given the high number of young players moving to the majors last season.
Because turnover was so high in 2011, using the team numbers as an indicator of how a typical Royals lineup might field in 2012 is shaky at best, and though shaky is my stage, I decided to do it a different way. First, I looked at the numbers of the typical, end-of-2011 starting lineup, minus the catcher and pitcher—their defensive statistics are calculated differently. Here’s what those numbers look like:
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
A. Gordon 11.2 -2.1 1.4 10.5 10.0
A. Escobar -2.3 8.4 4.1 10.2 9.9
J. Francoeur 9.3 -8.7 -0.1 0.6 0.4
J. Giavotella -0.3 -1.4 -0.8 -2.5 -9.6
E. Hosmer -1.0 .7.3 1.4 -7.0 -8.3
M. Moustakas 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.0
M. Cabrera -3.0 -6.3 0.7 -8.6 -9.7
AVG 5.8 -0.7 -2.5 1.0 0.5 -0.9
*Please note that some of these are from VERY small sample sizes.
Let’s start with the surprises. Eric Hosmer was not as good of a defender last season, statistically, as people think he was (not actually a surprise to those who are statistics people). In fact, he was pretty bad. Why? The prevailing theory, from other people, and I tend to agree, is positioning. His positioning, where he lines up before the pitch is thrown, was poor. This brought his range numbers way down for a guy many people consider long, athletic, and rangy. Hosmer’s problem, essentially, is he hugs the line too much and allows balls through the hole. Luckily, positioning is a very easy thing to fix. He takes a step or two off the line, and those numbers look very different next season. I also anticipate fewer errors next year, but more on Hosmer later.
Another surprise, Cabrera’s ARM number. With 13 outfield assists, it seems like he must have saved the Royals a number of runs, but apparently that’s not the case. Apparently, his arm only helps emphasize how bad a center fielder he is, and these numbers aren’t anomalies. His UZR/150 in center field for his career is -7.3. Though this is not a surprise, his ARM number is to those who watched him throw out a number of runners last season. No matter how anyone slices it, Cabrera is not a good defensive center fielder.
From this defensive lineup, things don’t look as promising. Remember the yearlong numbers we looked at first included players like Chris Getz and Wilson Betemit, as well as other bench players. The lineup above reflects what the typical, end-of-2011 lineup looked like. Consequently, Cabrera, Hosmer, and Johnny Giavotella’s numbers are dragging the defense down.
We know that Cabrera won’t be in Kansas City next year so I started the projection there. This is where the guesswork and a crazy balance between optimism and pessimism begin. I started by adding a neutral center fielder to the mix, not a great center fielder, just one that won’t cost them runs:
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
A. Gordon 11.2 -2.1 1.4 10.5 10.0
A. Escobar -2.3 8.4 4.1 10.2 9.9
J. Francoeur 9.3 -8.7 -0.1 0.6 0.4
J. Giavotella -0.3 -1.4 -0.8 -2.5 -9.6
E. Hosmer -1.0 .7.3 1.4 -7.0 -8.3
M. Moustakas 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.0
Neurtral CF 0 0 0 0 0
AVG 6.8 -0.7 -1.6 0.9 1.7 0.5
And just like that, the Royals defense helps them instead of hurting them. I don’t think we’ll truly know the impact of having a different defender in center field until next season, but it seems clear that getting even a neutral option in center (or assuming that Cain plays a neutral center field) makes a significant difference. Cabrera’s range, or lack thereof, especially in a big outfield like Kauffman, is a liability. With Cain in center, even if he only plays at a neutral level, the outfield defense should be better.
But most don’t believe Cain will just be neutral. Most believe he’ll be at least above average and perhaps well above average. He’s still learning center field, but his numbers in very limited major league experience are pretty good, with a 3.2 RngR and a 5.7 UZR/150 in only 306 innings with the Brewers in 2010 (not so reliable with the small sample size). Because the sample size is so small, I decided to try to find a comparison player and replace his numbers with Cain’s to help project the 2012 defense. I used a mixture of his skill set and his numbers and found Shane Victorino’s 2011 season, a defensive comparison only. I chose Victorino, despite the fact that his RngR is historically pretty bad, because his 2011 numbers approximate what I think Cain should conservatively be able to do.
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
A. Gordon 11.2 -2.1 1.4 10.5 10.0
A. Escobar -2.3 8.4 4.1 10.2 9.9
J. Francoeur 9.3 -8.7 -0.1 0.6 0.4
J. Giavotella -0.3 -1.4 -0.8 -2.5 -9.6
E. Hosmer -1.0 .7.3 1.4 -7.0 -8.3
M. Moustakas 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.0
L. Cain -1 4.2 1.2 4.4 5.7
AVG 6.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1 2.4 1.3
Another fairly significant jump up. Of course, no one knows how Cain will play in center. Nor does anyone know if his bat will be good enough to keep him in the lineup. I’m of the opinion that Cain will be fine at the plate. He’s succeeded at the Major League level before (in Milwaukee), and I think he should be around the .280/.330/.390 line. To be fair to myself, these defensive numbers are on the conservative side and a fair estimation of what Cain should be able to do.
But Cain isn’t the only upgrade that looks likely in the 2012 season. A couple of the players held over from 2012 look poised to improve. I mentioned earlier that moving Hosmer a couple steps off the line should help his numbers immediately. At the same time, Giavotella should improve his defensive play as well.
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
A. Gordon 11.2 -2.1 1.4 10.5 10.0
A. Escobar -2.3 8.4 4.1 10.2 9.9
J. Francoeur 9.3 -8.7 -0.1 0.6 0.4
J. Giavotella -0.3 -4.0 -1.0 -5.3 -5.3
E. Hosmer -1.0 4.4 2.0 5.4 5.4
M. Moustakas 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.0
L. Cain -1 4.2 1.2 4.4 5.7
AVG 6.5 -0.7 0.3 1.1 3.7 3.9
*Note that Giavotella’s numbers from this table look odd compared to the other tables, with UZR/150 matching UZR. That’s because these are projections over 150 games, whereas the numbers from previous tables are from 46 games and are extrapolated for 150 games. The same can be true for all players who played only part of the year.
Whoa! I know what you’re thinking. Marc that’s a huge change; you’re just making all this shit up. If you’re thinking that, you’re correct. But there’s a method to this madness. To give Hosmer his numbers, I looked at a player he’s often compared to, Mark Teixeira. That’s pretty bold, but he’s got that kind of talent. Here are Teixeira’s numbers.
DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
2011: -0.4 6 3 8.6 8.8
Career: -0.5 3.1 2.7 5.3 5.4
So, I approximated using those numbers. It’s not outlandish. It is guesswork, but it’s also based on something other than randomly throwing jelly at a refrigerator with magnet numbers (my plan B).
As for Giavotella’s numbers, those are truly a hopeful approximation. I did look at Dan Uggla in an attempt to find a comparison. Uggla is nowhere near a gem with the glove, much like Giavotella, but Uggla’s career defensively has been a rollercoaster. Some years, he helps his team, some he hurts, some he’s near neutral. I think the best Royals fans can hope for is that Giavotella doesn’t hurt the team too much with his glove. He doesn’t have a lot of range, but if Hosmer gets off the line, that should help him. Plus, Giavotella has the work ethic to get better. I think what he needs to focus on, and what he probably will focus on, is making sure he makes every play he should. Sure, he’ll attempt to improve his range, but his athleticism will limit that. He can make more progress making sure he makes all the routine plays and turns every double play.
So, looking at things in an optimistic light, I’ve gotten the Royals up to a UZR/150 of 3.9 with their everyday line up. This doesn’t account for their terrific defensive catcher or their pitching staff, which looks like a wash if you look at their defensive numbers, nor does it account for their bench (Oh Yuni. You make me laugh at how terrible you are).
But this aint a world of sunshine, rainbows, and buttercups. It’s darkness, black holes, and dry-wall screws … I guess … are those things opposites … I hope so. But really, we need to look at the outlier performances from last year and bring those down to earth a bit. Will Alex Gordon have a million-bajillion assists again? Probably not. Will Francoeur? I doubt it. They might have decent ARM numbers; I certainly think their arms will help them, but I don’t think they’ll have quite the success of last year. For my final table, I offer you adjusted numbers on Gordon and Francoeur to go along with the adjustments for Hosmer, Giavotella, and the center field addition of Cain.
ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
A. Gordon 7.0 -1.0 1.0 7.0 7.0
A. Escobar -2.3 8.4 4.1 10.2 9.9
J. Francoeur 7.0 -7.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
J. Giavotella -0.3 -4.0 -1.0 -5.3 -5.3
E. Hosmer -1.0 4.4 2.0 5.4 5.4
M. Moustakas 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.0
L. Cain -1 4.2 1.2 4.4 5.7
AVG 4.3 -0.7 0.7 1.1 3.2 3.5
Francoeur’s UZR/150 actually goes up but just a tick. His ARM number goes down to represent his past three years more accurately. Gordon’s ARM number is bound to go down, mostly because people will run on him less. I think his RngR will improve slightly as he keeps learning left field. He’s athletic enough to have decent range in left; he just needs better routes to balls and a quicker first step. That will come with more experience. He may never have tremendous range, but he can have decent range.
I left Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar alone. Why? Because I think what they did last year can represent what they will do for most of their careers. Moustakas is no Scott Rollen, but he played better than expected at third, and I imagine his work ethic won’t allow him to get any worse, nor will his agility allow him to get much better. Those who saw Escobar’s never-ending string of highlights know he’s got crazy range, and makes most of the routine plays as well. If his glove ever suffers, fans won’t need to worry about him defensively or offensively because he won’t be around for very long.
Ok. If you’re still reading at this point, kudos to you. Digest all that, and I’ll find more stuff to talk about later.
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